Blog Post #3: The Correlation Between Climate Change and Conflict

Blog Post #3: The Correlation Between Climate Change and Conflict

There are many explanations for the causes of human conflict, but one of the most interesting may be the correlation between climate change and conflict. These changes in climate include warming temperatures, alterations in precipitation patterns, and differences in resource allocations (as well as many others), which consequently affect almost every region on the globe (Hsiang et al, 2013). There is evidence of the link between climate change and conflict dates back as early as 10,000 BCE, but as the world continues to warm, the association becomes clearer: “the meta-analysis of studies that have examined in the post 1950-era suggests that the magnitude of climate’s influence on modern conflict is both substantial and highly statistically significant” (Hsiang et al, 2013). With that being said, it is important to recognize the relationship between climate change and its unprecedented effects on human conflict as the world becomes increasingly warm.

It has been argued that humans are an inherently violent species. We are one of only species in the animal kingdom that kills our own kind (besides our close relative, the chimpanzee) for reasons other than pure survivalism. There has been evidence of individual, civil and/or violent, national and/or international conflicts throughout human history, ranging from the earliest records (thousands of years BCE) up until today. The reasons for these clashes are many and include shortage of resources, ethnic or tribal conflicts, and natural disasters affecting one population versus another. However, modern conflict is becoming a subgroup of its own, due to factors such as advanced technology and climate change. Although climate change is a complex global environmental issue, there is a growing body of evidence that shows a connection between climate change and aggressive human behavior (Hsiang et al, 2013). That was the question in the article “Global Warming Making People More Aggressive?” in National Geographic. The article concluded that warming temperatures cause people to be outside more and thus interact more and, on national level, changing weather patterns leads to food shortages and malnutrition, which are risk factors in aggressive people (Than, 2010).

Everyone can get edgy when it’s hot out; you’re uncomfortable, you’re thirsty, you’re not in the mood to deal with anyone else, etc. This can obviously become exacerbated with scarce water, food, and/or fuel. With climate change altering temperature and precipitation patterns, drought, floods, and increased storms (as well as storm intensity) can ensue. Furthermore, these changes can negatively affect vegetation patterns, leading to a shift or alteration in resources, including a depletion of resource stocks altogether. The scarcity of resources (or other valuable goods, which in this case is due to climate change), will ultimately lead to conflict (Klare, 2002).

In the article “Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict,” Hsiang et al. examine the extent of the relationship between climate change and human conflict. The authors provide substantial evidence from 60 different studies to show that in fact climate change has impacted human conflict “across a range of spatial and temporal scales and across all major regions in the world” (Hsiang et al, 2013). This evidence includes the graphic analysis of many different human conflicts in relation to rising temperatures, including increased levels of rape, violent personal crime, inter-group riots, political and inter-group violence, civil conflict and civil war, and political leader exit (Hsiang et al, 2013). The article concludes with overwhelming verification that climatic changes are responsible for this continual rise in human conflict around the world.

Overall, I strongly agree with the argument that there is a correlation between climate change and human conflict. Add the intricate nature of climate change (and all of the political, economic, scientific, and social factors that contribute to it), to the complex nature of people (including the biological, psychological, sociological factors), and the result would be a relationship that is extremely dense, interwoven, and explosive. Due to advances in technology and access to new data, scientists from across a multitude of disciplines have been able to document that almost everyone on earth is affected (or will be affected) by the changes in temperature and precipitation patterns due to climate change either directly or indirectly in the cases of allocation of resources and intensity of storms.

As previously stated, there is a strong body of evidence that shows there is a correlation between climate change and human conflict. As we continue to move forward into a warmer world, the question remains, how will this affect the future? So far, primary quantitative studies show “a relationship between climate and conflict, violence, and political instability” (Hsiang et al, 2013).  These conflicts will only become intensified as humans continue to deplete natural resources, emit massive quantities of greenhouse gases through activities such as development, and degrade their current reserves of food and fuel. In order to avoid further increases in human conflict, we must look for ways to curb climate change.

Than, Ker. “Is Global Warming Making People More Aggressive?” National Geographic. 2010. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/03/100324-global-warming-violence-aggression/