Tuesday, September 30, 2014

How do we Deal with Climate Change?

Kevin Reilly How do we deal with Climate Change? The Montreal Protocol worked for two reasons: participating was an economically sound decision in terms of international trade; and more importantly technology advances led to a smooth transition after a CFC ban (Pilke). The regime behind the Montreal Protocol was lucky with the timely technological advances that turned CFC’s into HCFC’s and now even HFC’s, both of which decreased the damage to the ozone (Broder). This saved the Ozone, however, the earth is still heating up at a catastrophic rate. To avoid devastation by the time the next century rolls around, there needs to be a push for advanced eco-friendly technology research and implementation. The only way to bring every developed and developing country to any form of international agreement on climate change is one that is mutually beneficial economically. In Kyoto the countries agreed to cut emissions by too little of an amount and gave no practical way to slash the greenhouse gasses. In Copenhagen, the countries reached for a massive goal in which China and India, who claimed to be developing countries would never agree too. Many states struggle to see the benefit of cutting emissions, because there is no obvious reward to slowing climate change. Slowing climate change is avoiding punishment many years down the road. With the Montreal Protocol, participating countries saw the Ozone come back due to their efforts and if there were a visible reward for climate change, perhaps climate change would be an easier cause to gain international cooperation. Where it may be difficult for countries to appreciate the climate staying the same as a reward, they would not miss a positive or negative slide in international trade. Over 800 sustainability experts who lived within 70 different countries say that economic instruments are the most important mechanism in developing a global solution (Erikson, Jeff) The response to trade is where research and development of environmentally friendly automobiles, especially in public transportation, is essential to the future of climate change. If developed countries invested heavily in eco-friendly vehicle development, advanced mass transit systems in all major cities, and worked with developing countries to implement similar systems there would be a massive cut in emissions. As an intern a leading congressman in most science fields, I sat in on an alternative energy lobbyist meeting (I will avoid specific names out of respect for the office). The lobbyist explained to the office’s assistant on military affairs that they developed a battery that is powerful enough to energize a fully functioning tank, using minimal fuel. The technology to save the climate exists and is on the verge of completion, but with the strength of corporations who rely on greenhouse gas emission it will take an international effort to implement fuel-efficient practices. A good example of what the standard for cars needs to become is the Tesla Model S. This vehicle is cosmetically attractive, fast, and emits nearly no greenhouse gas as it runs primarily on electric battery. This car is already selling rapidly in the world’s greatest greenhouse gas emitter, China, according to Yahoo’s John Voelcker . Sales of a car like this can alter Chinas current path of emission. China’s emissions from transportation will increase from “200 megatons annually today to nearly 1200 megatons in 2050,” according to a University of California, Davis study. Six times more emissions by the world’s biggest country will be fatal to the climate. Changing their automobile market to electric based vehicles or fuel efficient mass transit systems will help slow the growth. To save the climate, it is essential for all countries to do away with greenhouse-gas-emitting-vehicle-centric cultures. Advancing research in necessary fields should become the talk and purpose of climate change summits. Copenhagen proved there will be gridlock finding the right percentage of emissions to cut (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ybecKdwj2c). Also, developing countries will feel jaded when told to cut emissions or are threatened to have their greenhouse gas emissions taxed. These regulations will hinder their growth and they are not the major emitters of greenhouse gas. In a research and economic based agreement, all countries can contribute a respectable amount to research, speeding up the process of fuel-efficient vehicle development. There investment in the development could lead to a further investment in applying the research. The next project will be to have current vehicle owners and manufactures to buy into the efficiency programs. One solution would be for governments to tax individuals based on greenhouse gas emissions. Gas stations could be taxed heavily gas sales. In terms of international trade there could be similar agreements to Montreal. Countries that fail to implement mass transit systems, spend money on agreed research, and tax their emitters will be blacklisted from specified sections of trade. Subsidizing developing countries development of mass transit systems would be another economical instrument that could make an agreement more feasible. The goal of these ideas is to get away from recent attempts to cut emissions. Those strategies rely on picking a specific number to cut emission by then every country goes its own way and is expected to comply. Developing eco-friendly technology and creating trade restrictions or benefits are tangible aspects to an agreement that could more effectively cut emissions. Pilke, Roger 2012. “Technology Was the Key Factor in Saving the Ozone Layer.” John M Broder, “A Novel Tactic in Climate Fight Gains Some Traction.” The New York Times, Nov. 9, 2010. Erikson, Jeff, After Kyoto, a new economics? ChinaDialogue.net, September 5, 2012. Voelcker, John, Tesla Model S China Sales 'Robust', Electric Car Waiting List Long: Analyst Green Car Reports, https://ca.autos.yahoo.com/news/tesla-model-china-sales-robust-electric-car-waiting-140004026.html A Global High Shift Scenario, Institute for Transportation and Development Policy, University of California, Davis; https://www.itdp.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/A-Global-High-Shift-Scenario_WEB.pdf

5 comments:

  1. I agree that the availability of economically feasible technologies was the most important reason that the Montreal Protocol was successful. I really like the approach you proposed in applying this principle to the fuel-efficient/hybrid/electric vehicle market. I think it has a good mix of carrots and sticks - sharing research and trade restrictions - that would make such an approach effective. It is particularly important because no time soon will people stop driving, especially in the absence of attractive and competitive alternatives. Therefore, approaching emissions reductions through the transportation sector means there will likely be heavy participation and developing countries may not feel as hindered economically as they would by other reductions schemes.

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  2. I found this blog post interesting because I also chose to write about how the world will have to figure out a way to move forward regarding climate change. I agree with your point that most countries don't see the need the curbing emissions because they are basically only interested in industrializing, and that a way to get them on board is through economic incentives. However, with respect to the point you bring up about China and the Tesla Model S, I feel that 1) switching to electric vehicles isn't feasible for a solid portion of Chinese citizens (for example, it's an expensive car and many Americans don't have the luxury of driving one; if it were sold at a lower price more Americans would probably be seen driving around in Tesla's) and 2) even if China were to switch to electric vehicles their emissions would still be sky high due to their rate of industrialization. I think that in big countries such as China and India (and even the US) , that are all big polluters and have big populations, your suggestion about trade restrictions is more likely to be seen as a policy tactic in the near future. Trade/economics is a language all governments are willing to talk.

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    1. Although industrialization of China causes a great deal of greenhouse gas emission and is difficult to slow down. The countries emissions from automobiles is expected to increase sixfold. Slowing this down could slow down climate change, which is why I focused my blog on automobile emissions.

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  3. I agree with your stance on this issue. Technology is going to be the main factor in solving many environmental issues because it can make fixes feasible economically. The Montreal Protocol was successful because of the unlike many treaties it had the technology to back it up. I thought the Tesla example was a good example of ways research and development can create things that are environmentally friendly and attractive to the masses.

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  4. I agree that the technology to slow climate change is becoming more feasible to create, or has already been created. Tesla is probably the best example of this, however, some other automobile companies have also tried to create vehicles that have low emissions. I think that climate change will affect us a lot sooner than the next century and that all of the world's nations need to mobilize in order to slow it down.

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